城市创意产业空间动态集聚演化的计算与可视优化方法     

周琦  高长春 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(5):1033-1048

基于人文地理视角下的城市创意产业图像可视化分析对城市深层次空间综合和区域创新发展具有重大意义。但Swarm群智能动态时空建模难以满足创意产业空间集聚的可视化发展。本文研究目标是,从城市区域创意产业空间聚类影响因素指标出发,创新性地提出区域空间动态集聚轨迹算法（Density-Based Interest Spatial Clustering of Path,DBICP）,并与计算机浏览器共建聚类可视化图像,为城市管理提供决策依据。首先,根据影响因素指标体系,利用2014—2018年空间卡口流量数据和产业指标数据进行预处理,构建空间标准聚类算法DBSCAN。然后,对其进行聚类密度分级优化形成全新DBICP算法并得出初步轨迹图像。最后,通过源码转译实现了浏览器界面下空间动态集聚轨迹图像的输出。结果表明：以上海市为例,普陀区、浦东新区、徐汇地区的创意产业空间分布形成了3种不同的聚类模式,并相应提出了分摊、均布、虹吸的管控策略。此方法克服了传统图像的聚类分级和轨迹测量的缺失,可以有效地从指标数据中发现图像轨迹聚类信息,体现了地理信息科学和人文社会学科的交叉融合。也为大数据动态图像的集聚方法提供了全新视角和借鉴价值。  相似文献   

Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario     

Mark Roelfsema  Hanna Fekete  Niklas Höhne  Michel den Elzen  Nicklas Forsell  Takeshi Kuramochi 《Climate Policy》2018,18(9):1103-1113

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

  相似文献   

江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

杨宏毅  霍治国  杨建莹  张桂香  吴立  范雨娴 《应用气象学报》2017,28(2):237-246

以江汉和江南西部地区春玉米为研究对象,利用研究区域内57个气象站1961-2012年的逐日降水量资料、春玉米生育期资料和春玉米涝渍灾情资料,筛选春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害样本。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析当前过程降水量和前期降水量对春玉米涝渍灾害的影响,并据此构建当量降水量。基于正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t-分布区间估计方法,计算不同生育时期、不同等级涝渍灾害的当量降水量指标阈值,由此构建该区域春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害等级指标并进行独立样本验证。在此基础上,利用信息扩散理论风险评估方法,计算各站点的春玉米涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明:当前过程降水量和前2旬降水量对该区域春玉米涝渍灾害有显著性影响;构建的区域春玉米涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况,指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性;出苗-拔节期和拔节-抽雄期发生春玉米涝渍灾害的风险相对较低,抽雄-成熟期为春玉米涝渍灾害的高风险时期,高风险区域主要位于湖北省恩施市、宜昌市西南部、荆州市西南部以及湖南省张家界市北部。  相似文献   

基于综合指标法的中国生态系统服务保护有效性评价研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张立伟  傅伯杰  吕一河  董治宝  李英杰  曾源  吴炳方 《地理学报》2016,71(5):768-780

将生态系统服务保护纳入到传统的以保护区为基础的自然保护之中是生态保护研究的新领域。利用综合指标方法,分析了中国从2000-2010年的4种生态系统服务时空变化特征;并对中国的七大生态保护和恢复区域的服务空间保护成效进行评价,提出了国家尺度上的生态系统服务保护优先性分级。主要结论为：① 中国的生态系统服务自西北向东南逐渐增加,显著增加区主要分布在黄土高原地区,显著减少区主要分布在东北及华北地区。黄土高原的生态系统服务提高主要是农田向草地和林地、草地向林地的转换引的;华北地区的降低主要是耕地的减少以及人工用地的增加引起的;东北地区是由于林地向耕地草地、耕地向湿地与人工用地的转换引起的。② 七大生态保护和恢复区的生态系统服务均为增加趋势而且显著增加面积大于减少面积;显著增加面积最大的为三北防护林工程区、最小的为重点生态功能区;显著减少最大为重要生态功能区、最小的为三北防护林工程区。而且,对服务的保护成效在重要生态功能区最高,其次为天然林保护工程区,其余区域均小于全国平均水平。③ 提出的生态系统服务保护优先性等级中,极高级别占到了国土面积的26.18%,保护的生态系统服务量占到全国总量的64.19%,保护成效为全国平均水平的2.47倍。  相似文献   

An indicator-based adaptive management framework and its development for data-limited fisheries in Belize     

《Marine Policy》2017

Decisions regarding the selection and implementation of management strategies that constrain fishing pressure can be among the most difficult choices that fisheries managers and stakeholders must make. These types of decisions often need to be confronted in a data-limited context, where few if any management measures are currently in place or fisheries are managed independent of adequate scientific advice. This situation can sometimes create a high risk of overfishing and potential loss of economic and social benefits. To address this situation, simple model-free indicator-based frameworks have the potential to be effective decision-making platforms for fisheries where quantitative estimates of biomass and fishing mortality based reference points are lacking. In this paper, a multi-indicator framework is developed that enables decision-makers to proceed with management decisions in data-limited situations. Model-free indicators are calculated using trends in observed data, rather than stock assessment derived estimates of biomass and fishing mortality. The framework developed is adaptive so that adjustments to catch or effort are recursive and can respond to changing environments, socioeconomic conditions, and fishing practices. Using stakeholder-defined objectives as a foundation, indicators and reference points of fishery performance are chosen that can be evaluated easily by undertaking analyses of available data. Indicators from multiple data streams are used so that uncertainty in one indicator can be hedged through careful interpretation and corroboration of information from alternative indicators. During the adaptive management cycle, managers and stakeholders evaluate each indicator against the associated reference points to determine performance measures, interpret the results using scientific and local knowledge, and adjust fishery management tactics accordingly using pre-defined harvest control rules. The framework facilitates the interpretation of situations in which performance measures suggest divergent stock abundance or productivity levels. A case study is presented on this framework's development for conch and lobster fisheries of Belize.  相似文献   

三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)冻藏过程中肌肉蛋白质生化特性的变化     

黄琳  张莉  武丹露 《海洋科学》2017,41(6):41-47

以三疣梭子蟹肌肉基本营养成分、蛋白质组成、肌原纤维蛋白含量、Ca~(2+)-ATPase活性、总巯基含量、二硫键含量以及肌原纤维蛋白的SDS-PAGE分析作为指标,研究了三疣梭子蟹在不同冻藏温度下肌肉蛋白质生化特征的变化。结果表明,三疣梭子蟹是典型的高蛋白食品;随着冻藏时间的延长,水溶性蛋白含量先增加后减少,盐溶性蛋白和不溶性蛋白含量逐渐减少,碱溶性蛋白含量逐渐增加;肌原纤维蛋白含量、Ca~(2+)-ATPase活性、总巯基含量随着冻藏时间的延长,均呈现下降趋势,而二硫键含量则呈上升趋势,且–20℃和–40℃两组之间差异显著(P0.05)。SDS-PAGE分析结果表明,组成肌原纤维蛋白的各种蛋白质均有不同程度降解,且–20℃比–40℃组降解更明显。因此,–40℃冻藏对梭子蟹肌肉蛋白质生化特性的影响较小。  相似文献   

甘肃石油河流域地下水补给来源与演化特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王礼恒  董艳辉  宋凡  张江义  童少青  张倩 《干旱区地理》2017,40(1):54-61

针对石油河流域所包含的赤金盆地与花海盆地,综合利用地下水水化学指标与稳定同位素技术系统地研究了地下水的补给来源与演化规律。其中赤金盆地地下水化学演化受控于溶滤作用,方解石、白云石、石膏等不断地溶解进入低矿化度的地下水中导致Mg²⁺+Ca²⁺与HCO₃^-+SO₄^2-沿1∶1等量线分布;而花海盆地高矿化度地下水中的Na⁺与SO₄^2-、Na⁺与Cl^-均有较好线性关系且多数矿物饱和指数>1,表明芒硝溶解控制了地下水中主要离子成分且地下水演化过程转由蒸发浓缩作用主导。赤金、花海盆地地下水氢氧同位素沿祁连山大气降水线分布或于右下方,二者特征相似,但后者更为富集重同位素,反映研究区地下水主要补给来源为祁连山大气降水或石油河河水;此外,两盆地间水力联系紧密,前者补给后者,因此在水资源开发利用时应将两盆地作为整体进行统筹管理,避免不合理开采造成环境地质问题。  相似文献   

Comparing flow regime,channel hydraulics,and biological communities to infer flow–ecology relationships in the Mara River of Kenya and Tanzania     

Michael E. McClain  Amanda L. Subalusky  Elizabeth P. Anderson  Shimelis Behailu Dessu  Assefa M. Melesse  Preksedis M. Ndomba 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(3-4):801-819

Abstract

Equatorial rivers of East Africa exhibit unusually complex seasonal and inter-annual flow regimes, and aquatic and adjacent terrestrial organisms have adapted to cope with this flow variability. This study examined the annual flow regime over the past 40 years for three gauging stations on the Mara River in Kenya and Tanzania, which is of international importance because it is the only perennial river traversing the Mara-Serengeti ecoregion. Select environmental flow components were quantified and converted to ecologically relevant hydraulic variables. Vegetation, macroinvertebrates, and fish were collected and identified at target study sites during low and high flows. The results were compared with available knowledge of the life histories and flow sensitivities of the riverine communities to infer flow–ecology relationships. Management implications are discussed, including the need to preserve a dynamic environmental flow regime to protect ecosystems in the region. The results for the Mara may serve as a useful model for river basins of the wider equatorial East Africa region.